Jobs in 2030

The world’s working-age population will increase by over a billion people over the next 20 years, but all growth will come in developing economies. However, at the same time, the developed world will see its workforce shrink and age.

Our report Creating Jobs in a Global Economy, compiled in partnership with economic forecaster Oxford Economics, shows that Singapore’s working age population will see a reduction of 338,000 people by 2030. The Russian Federation tops the list of countries that will experience the sharpest fall in working age population, contracting by 16.9 million people by 2030. Overall, the size of developed economies’ population of working age adults will contract by one million people.

In contrast, the increase in working age population will come from less developed or least developed nations. Topping the list is India, which will add 241.1 million people to its working age population by 2030.

Hour-glass labour market

Another key finding from the report was the creation of an ‘hour glass’ labour market, as technological change forces out the middle group of semi-skilled workers. Typically, these workers have jobs that can be outsourced. Already we’ve seen this trend in the workplace, such as in the manufacturing sector, where jobs involving repeated, routine actions are being replaced by automated machines and robots. The call centre industry, in particular call centre operation roles, is also likely to be affected. Bookkeeping and data processing roles are other examples of jobs also under threat from technological change.

On the other hand, demand will increase for high-skilled occupations, such as managers, doctors and consultants, and for routine low-skilled occupations that computers and machines cannot replace, like cooking, cleaning, building, catering, driving, transport, home maintenance and hairdressing. The same can be said of occupations where face-to-face contact cannot be replaced with a machine, such as those in healthcare and education.

Skills in demand by 2030

Finally, the report identifies four key sectors or issues expected to define the skills in high demand over the next 20 years. The first is the financial sector, followed by healthcare given forecasts of the increasing number of elderly people across the globe. Next are green energy professionals, in response to climate change. Finally, the industrialisation of some of the larger emerging markets is likely to lead to demand for skilled construction and engineering professionals. These four issues will obviously not be the only issues or changes to impact on the skilled labour market over the next 20 years; but they give good guides to what skills will be needed and how employers can ensure businesses’ needs are met most efficiently.

+       For further information, please contact Ash Russell, Senior Business Director of Hays in Singapore on ash.russell@hays.com.sg or phone +65 6223 4535